Market Data Bank

1Q 2019


Click image to enlarge

S&P 500 SURGES SHARPLY IN Q12019

Stocks posted a surprising +13.7% gain in Q12019 after a 4Q2018 loss of -13.5%. The S&P500 stock index posted a +7.7% total return in 3Q2018, a +3.4% return in 2Q, and a -0.8% loss in 1Q2018. As the quarter ended, investor psychology showed signs of a change, and stock market indexes hovered near all-time highs.

 

 


Click image to enlarge

PLUNGE ENDED 9-YEAR 11-MONTH BULL RUN

Over the one-year period ended March 31st, 2019, China was the laggard among bourses worldwide, as prospects of a trade war with the U.S. mounted. While China’s economy would shrink materially if exports to the U.S. were stopped, U.S. GDP was expected to suffer only fractionally from a China trade war.

 


Click image to enlarge

INTEREST RATES DROVE SECTORS

The yield on a 10-year Treasury bond plunged, from 2.69% to 2.41% in Q1, which boosted utilities to income investors. The yield curve — the difference between 10-year T-bonds and 90-day T-Bills — inverted at the end of 2018, hurting bank and financials stocks.

 


Click image to enlarge

INDEXES TRACKING 13 ASSET CLASSES

The S&P 500 index’s total return of +68% over the five years shown was almost four times the S&P Global ex-U.S. stock market’s return of +18%. It is testament to how resiliently the U.S. economy came out of the last severe global recession and U.S. growth outpaced other world economies and asset classes.

 


Click image to enlarge

S&P 500 AND POST-WAR EXPANSIONS

At 118-months old, this expansion, following on the 2008 Global Financial Crisis is highly likely to exceed the longest boom in post-War history, the 120-month long stretch in the 1990s. Unless a black swan event were to occur, continued strong fundamentals may make this the longest expansion in modern history.

 


Click image to enlarge

EQUITY RISK PREMIUM

The S&P 500 hit a record all-time high on September 20th, 2018, then dropped -19.8% to a Christmas Eve low. Rounding makes it qualify as a bear market drop of 20%. But it was a short bear run. The plunge occurred after the Fed’s December 19th decision to raise lending rates a quarter of 1%.

 

 

 

Past performance is never a guarantee of your future results. Indices and ETFs representing asset classes are unmanaged and not recommendations. Foreign investing involves currency and political risk and political instability. Bonds offer a fixed rate of return while stocks fluctuate. Investing in emerging markets involves greater risk than investing in more liquid markets with a longer history.

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer

Howard Materetsky, Ira S. Materetsky CFP®, Matt Welsh and Mark Furman offer advisory products and services through Materetsky Financial Group, a registered investment advisor. Securities offered through Private Client Services, Member FINRA/SIPC. Materetsky Financial Group is not affiliated with Private Client Services. Tom Gau offers advisory products and services through Materetsky Financial Group, a registered investment advisor.

Materetsky Financial Group advisors are registered in the following states: AL, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, PA, RI, SC, VA, WA, WI, WV, and WY. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident outside the specific states referenced.

SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The firm is not engaged in the practice of law or accounting. Tom Gau has been featured as one of the top 100 independent financial advisors in Barron’s in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2013. The Barron's rankings are based on data provided by over 4,000 of the nation's most productive advisors. Barron’s uses a deeply researched, quantitative and qualitative approach to identify the top 100 independent financial advisors, which represents 2.5%. Factors included in the rankings are a minimum of 7 years in the business, client retention, assets under management, revenue produced for the firm, regulatory record, quality of practice and philanthropic work. Investment performance isn't an explicit component because not all advisors have audited results and because performance figures often are influenced more by client’s risk tolerance than by an advisor's investment-picking abilities. Third-party rankings and recognition from rating services or publications are no guarantee of future investment success. Working with a highly-rated adviser does not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the adviser by any client nor are they representative of any one client’s evaluation. Generally, ratings, rankings and recognition are based on information prepared and submitted by the adviser. Barron’s does not receive any compensation from this advisor in exchange for ratings. For more information on these ratings, please contact the financial advisor or www.barrons.com.

 
 
 

Contact Info

Materetsky Financial Group
2240 Woolbright Road Suite 354
Boynton Beach FL 33426

Phone: 561-735-9227
Fax: 561-735-9815
Email: help@materetsky.com

Materetsky Financial Group
6800 Jericho Turnpike Suite 120W
Syosset NY 11791

Phone: 516-227-1111
Fax: 516-227-1144
Email: help@materetsky.com